May 22, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

The Liquidity Crisis: In-depth Commentary From This American Life

This American Life LogoA good friend and past client just sent me this National Public Radio podcast that explains how the Liquidity Crisis was born. I had listened to this on the radio the other day. It gives a real ground level, human perspective of how we ended up where we are today.

You can download the pod cast for $.95 or listen to it for free online. It is 1 hour long but worth the time spent if you want to understand why the liquidity crisis occurred and who it affects. Click the link below and give it a listen.

http://www.thislife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?episode=355

I wanted to also thank my client who sent me this pod cast link. In his e-mail he said that this pod cast helped him to have a much more in-depth understanding of the Liquidity Crisis. His contact gave me a chance to reflect in this post and also gave me some more in-depth thinking about why our clients have fared so well in this crisis. The good thing I see about the Liquidity Crisis is that it has gotten our clients to take a closer look at their finances.

For years, we have been offering our clients financial help when buying and selling property. We did this because we could see how easy it could be for a buyer or seller to betray their financial concerns in a transaction without even knowing they had. I believe this is why my clients have prospered during this crisis while I have watched other home buyers and sellers suffer. As I have long said, “Real estate agents must be competent to care for all of their clients concerns.” Thus, as stated in the previous posting called, Guidance Verses Advice: Which Is A Philosophical Standard Of Care, this is why I distinguish myself as real estate advisor not as a typical realtor. The tactic of making a real estate transaction is simple and often fairly standardized, but creating strategies that care for your client’s futures and putting them in a better situation after the transaction than before is a completely different story.




May 12, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

Discounted Real Estate Brokerage Means Discounted Service

I just read an article posted on The Real Estate Bloggers stating that Zip Realty an online discount real estate firm based in Emeryville, California just had a first quarter 2008 loss of 7.2 million dollars. It does not surprise me.

Don’t get me wrong, I applaud the real estate firms that are using new technological tools of communication to drop the cost of a real estate transaction. Yet, I see the biggest problem is not the technology, but it is in the lessening of service with the lessening of fees. I have had many transactions with discounted brokers and I have found that throughout the transactions they are constantly trying to cut their cost even if it is not in the best interests of their clients. They consistently attempt to save time or cut corners. I don’t think they are bad people, but they have to discount their services and increase their volume of transactions in order to make a living. My question is does this model best benefit the consumer? I would say that that as illustrated by Zip Realty’s large losses it does not.

As our market shifted, so did the total volume of transactions. As regional volume diminished the ones most effected were those who counted on it. Through our volatile market we are also seeing a shift where buyers and sellers are needing more powerful advice in order to take care of all their concerns. Thus, discounted brokers are being suffocated in both directions. The less volume means less revenue on an already slim budget. The increased care needed means that they cannot compete with the more robust services that full service agents provide. There is now a lack of efficiency in the market that makes a cookie cutter approach to buying and selling real estate obsolete. Gone are the days of putting a sign in the front yard at 9:00am and having hoards of buyers by 12:00pm.

I am all for cost conservation, but I have found that I make and save my clients far more money through our complete services then I would by giving back some of my commission. Dropping margins only puts agents and their clients at odds with each other in a time where the customer needs more help than ever before if they want to avoid unwanted consequences in a vastly changing marketplace. I believe that buyers and sellers need top notch service in order to gain competitive advantage. Sellers need heightened property visibility and superior strategies for selling their homes in a slowing market. Buyer’s need knowledgeable agents who can make powerful observations and assessments. They both need a competent adviser who can offer them the capacity to get the best deal possible.




April 17, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

Volatility Creates Interesting Moods And Opportunities

Wave
Thanks mj*laflaca for this photo

Big ups and big downs create interim situations that can favor the bulls and the bears. I always liked the Warren Buffet’s quote, “When the tide goes out we get to see who is not wearing a bathing suit!” I can just visualize Warren selling a surprised naked swimmer a pair of shorts for 10 times the value Nordstrom’s would charge. Yes, abrupt changes in the market do show us weaknesses, but they also expose opportunities.

We all know that the markets will inevitably go up and down. Yet, people often get caught up in the change and miss the opportunity that is created. I know this is true for residential real estate. I have seen many people sit and watch the market move around them. These folks tend to be purveyors of disaster. They might say, “I can’t believe the stock market dropped 200 points today. Yikes!” Others are realizing opportunity in this market and buying homes whose sales prices look more like 2005 ’s median price than 2008’s. I am also watching some listings receive multiple bids and sell for over the asking price. I even had a buyer who recently purchased a luxury home for less than it would cost to construct the home in todays market. Opportunity exists in both bull and bare markets.

I have also recently been looking at the big changes ahead in commercial and residential income real estate. I find it interesting that Shorenstein (one of the largest private real estate investment funds) has just raised its largest fund ever ($2.06 billion). It is interesting to see how the current market volatility has made for some amazing opportunities to raise real estate investment capital.

It has been interesting for me to note that powerful investors make moves when the future seems the most unclear to the masses. This is because value in real estate often occurs when the market is most inefficient. Currently the liquidity crisis has made our financial markets very inefficient. This has also translated in to inefficiency in residential real estate sales. The efficient days of placing a sign in the front yard and having 10 bidders at your doorstep have been replaced by an ebbing and flowing market. When everyone is running away from investing in the market, and the tide goes out, the professional investors begin to pick away at the deals that are left behind.

Most surprising in this market are the individual emotions and moods that tend to amplify the tides. I have often heard people say, “My friend said the real estate values are falling everywhere.” Often I have seen that the friend does not own a home. Yet, the ripple they create with their hysterical mood will affect the actions of a few. Savvy buyers and seller ground their moods with data and facts. They can then take powerful confident action in the market. They learn the characteristics of their market and then act when opportunity arises.

There are plenty of great opportunities in this market, as its ebb and flow opens and closes opportunities for selling and buying.




April 6, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

Get a Graphical Picture of the Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis

New York Fed Heat MAp

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has put together a great National interactive heat map that overlays the residential loan data of sub-prime mortgage holders. I am bringing this to the attention of our readers as I just witnessed a home in inner Berkeley that received 14 offers. I also just read a post on 3 Oceans Real Estate that concurred that homes on the peninsula are also receiving multiple offers and counter intuitive to what is going on Nationally, selling for over the asking price.

Since the beginning of the liquidity crisis I have been posting that many Bay Area cities were not experiencing as severe a decline as the national news media had indicated. I also stated that if we were to see a rise in interest rates coupled with a stagnation or rise in median home prices (instead of falling median home values as the media had speculated), then many home buyers would get caught waiting for the sky to fall. Having watched the Bay Area real estate markets closely over the past year I have begun to see interest rates rise due to the lack of liquidity in the banking industry. Yet, in many popular Bay Area markets the median home values have not fallen significantly as many have projected. Of course this is not true for all cities, zip codes and houses. Thus, getting the advice of a local competent real estate adviser is of the utmost importance when considering purchasing a home. Through transacting in this market I have seen for both my buyers and sellers that in volatile times there is great opportunity for both.

The interesting thing about these heat maps is that they show the strength of the Bay Area’s home owners to wait out a real estate storm. Thus, the most desirable Bay Area houses have been very resilient to the housing down turn, while in the less desirable areas I have seen sharper drops in values. In Berkeley we are seeing a lack of desirable housing inventory. This has meant the desirable housing stock is receiving lots of buyer activity and often receiving multiple offers. I believe that this is because as these heat maps illustrate the East Bay and Most of the Bay Area is not inundated by as many short sales and foreclosures as many other parts of the Nation. The maps also indicate that the East Bay has home owners who have steady jobs, strong FICO scores and lower loan to values then say California’s Central Valley.




March 21, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

A Different Perspective on the Question… Is Now a Good Time to Buy?

The Mortgage Reports Logo

I just read an interesting perspective on the currently most asked question of 2008. So, Is now a good time to buy? We have written many different posts stating why it’s an excellent time to buy in the Bay Area. The main reason is that we are seeing negotiating opportunities for our buyer clients while currently we are still seeing historically low rates.

Yet, Dan Green of the Mortgage Reports has an interesting mortgage brokers perspective on why now is a good time to buy. His main reason is that there are drastic changes still taking place in the mortgage markets. Banks are still introducing new guidelines and tightening credit. That from Dan’s perspective the known is always better then the future unknowns.

I also found it interesting that Dan has an article on how the feds drops in interest rates are actually pushing long term interest rates upward. This brings me back to one of my old posts, where I discussed that rates can rise while property values can stagnate. This can squeeze buyers into paying more even though prices have fallen. A Bay Area buyer only has to look at Berkeley to see that many areas values have not fallen through the proverbial floor.

So, as I have stated before… Now is a great time to buy for those that are long term (3-5 year) buyers that are well qualified with good credit and down payments.




March 19, 2008 :: Jeffrey T. Smith

Susan McHan’s Mortgage Market Explanation – 20+ year of experience

Susan McHan is co-founder, President & CEO, Opes Advisors, Inc.Susan McHan, CEO & President of Opes Advisors, a Bay Area wealth management company specializing in mortgage banking and investment advising, was recently interviewed on ABC7’s The View From The Bay on the current mortgage & real estate environment.

This is a great take on where we are in the real estate and mortgage markets (locally, state and nation), where it may go from here and what actions to consider. You can watch the approximate 5 minute interview here. Be informed by someone with an historical and personal experience perspective (bio).




March 11, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

Should move up buyers make a move in this market?

Big Ford and Little Ford CarRecently, past clients have asked me if this is a good market to sell their homes and move into better homes in better neighborhoods. This is an uncommon thought as compared to the typical national market sentiment that sellers should stay put in the current market turmoil. In working with these clients I have found that this market is a great opportunity for some move up buyers. The general discussion goes like this…

You will be taking less profit on the sale of your home, but you also will be buying for less on the other end. Usually, I am finding that this opportunity is open to clients whose income has risen since they bought their homes, thus they can afford to buy into nicer neighborhoods. Anti-intuitive to the current market mentality, I have found that it may make better sense to make the move now, then it did in the hot market.

2 years ago move up buyers were selling their homes and getting more money then they ever thought possible. Yet, they would also be competing against many others and buying homes at higher prices. This market fed itself with sellers cheering the competition when selling and dreading it when buying. It also usually meant increased capital gains taxes on the sale and increased property taxes on the purchase.

Now, as the market has changed, home owners have been watching as median home prices have fallen off of their record highs. Yet, buying at a cheaper price means that you save on annual reoccurring taxes. As a buyer you now have the ability to negotiate with sellers who are lacking multiple bidders. We are also still seeing historically low interest rates that are still making loans very attractive to buying. Not to mention the Federal Government that is creating incentives for buyers, by lowering prime interest rates and raising conforming rates nation wide.

Here is a recent example. I recently completed 2 transactions for a client who sold their 1.5 million dollar plus home and traded for a more expensive home. On the sale I estimate that they took about $200,000 less then the top of the market price. Yet, on the purchase they bought a home which cost less then the current cost to construct the home (the price per square foot was less then current cost to construct the home). I estimate the savings to be approximately $200,000 on the purchase. They bought into a situation where their new home has a better potential for future appreciation. They bought a home that is 1,000 square feet larger than their previous home, in a better neighborhood for them. Their taxes ended up being approximately $3,000 less per year then if they had purchased at the height of the market. They got a great interest rate on the portion of the home they leveraged. They got less profit on their sale, but gained even more on their purchase.

Just as in the hot market, the trick to moving up now is a financial and real estate team devoted to developing an uncommon strategy to better your situation. I have found that this market is a great opportunity for many move up clients.

Thanks Kerrythis for the car image above.




March 6, 2008 :: Jeffrey T. Smith

FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - New Loan Limits Released

Bush & JacksonI know, alphabet soup… Welcome to the world of government acronyms and abbreviation. In lay terms, the 2008 Economic Stimulus Bill has cleared the way for three channels of mortgages (FHA, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac) to increase their loan limits. Good news for most of California because these three types of loans generally have lower interest rates and/or easier qualifying criteria and/or higher loan-to-value limitations (the amount of a mortgage relative to the value of the home).

Earlier this week, HUD (Housing and Urban Development) released the new FHA (Federal Housing Administration) loan limits for California, with the remainder of the country soon to follow. (You can read more about the FHA limits at this link.) And today, the OFHEO (Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced the loan limits for those counties and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that are affected by the new loan limits. Data for all areas are available on the HUD Web site at this link.

Ten counties in the greater Bay Area will have their limits raised to the new maximum loan limit of $729,750 for all three types of loans (FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac). Those 10 counties are: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, San Benito, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Napa and Monterey.It will still take time before anyone can act on the new, higher, loan limits. How long? We don’t know yet, but our speculation is in the next 4-8 weeks. And we still don’t know how these loans will be priced (i.e. interest rate you can get). Although most lenders can do conventional (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac) loans, not all lenders can do FHA loans. So don’t assume your friendly mortgage broker necessarily can. This is good news for the CA real estate and mortgage markets. It won’t solve all California issues, but it certainly will help.




February 26, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

The City of Kensington Illustrates the Many Different Supply and Demand Trends of the Bay Area

Kensington Supply and Demand Graph
Click Photo to Enlarge

I recently reviewed some new Bay Area supply and demand graphs we are now following. They are generated from a data mining and graphing software we are now utilizing. One of the interesting graphs it produces gives us a nice look at the supply and demand trends of the many different Bay Area markets. It does a nice job of zooming in on what is happening in localized micro-climates.

At first glance I found it interesting to note the supply and demand trends in Kensington (above). I found it interesting to see that Kensington’s supply of homes (homes on the market) has gone down (year over year), while its demand (or homes sold and under contract) has been keeping pace with the market nicely. It is interesting to see that not all areas are seeing rapidly rising inventory as the media has made it seem. Don’t get me wrong there are buying opportunities in many markets, but as this graph allows me to illustrate, we have also been observing some nice selling opportunities as well.

Currently, the best advice for sellers, is to make sure your real estate professional has a good grip on your markets micro-economic conditions. What are your markets supply and demand trends? What is the data suggesting? You should have the information necessary to make an informed decision on the timing and pricing of your next transaction.




February 13, 2008 :: Jeffrey T. Smith

New conforming loan limits – estimating the benefit

Raining MoneyHouseAs part of the now-signed-into-law Stimulus Package, the raising of conforming loan limits is a welcome change for many home owners, buyers and sellers in the San Francisco Bay Area. But there are clearly some limitations of what the benefit will be, who will benefit and if/how/when it will all come together.

Tuck Reed, Executive VP of SunTrust Mortgage, released a memorandum earlier this week that I think best articulates and speculates about the impact of the increase in conforming loan limits. The ramifications and benefits will come to fruition over the next few months and throughout 2008.




February 12, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

Interesting Article in the San Francisco Chronicle: The Bay Area Bucks the National Trend

Zillow Bay Area Heat Map ImageThe San Francisco Chronicle ran a real estate article today showing the ups and downs of the real estate market. The story ran along with a Zillow heat map that showed average appreciating and depreciating ZIP codes in the Bay Area. I can’t say that the data behind the heat map is all correct. Especially, considering Zillow’s past record on predicting the value of Bay Area homes.

Yet, it is interesting to see that Berkeley, El Cerrito, parts of Oakland, Marin, San Rafael, San Mateo, Redwood City, Palo Alto, Cupertino and Santa Clara all seemed to buck the National downward trend. Historically the Bay Area housing market is the last area into a down market and first out. This report appears to show that we are weathering the National storm fairly well.




January 31, 2008 :: Jeffrey T. Smith

The Fed Cut Rates? Let’s Refi! Not Necessarily…

Ben S. Bernanke, FOMC ChairmanAt the conclusion of their meeting this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the overnight borrowing rate for US banks by another ½%. This was on the heals of a similar move the Fed last week with a reduction of ¾%. For most consumers they will benefit with a reduction to the prime rate to 6.0%. Most Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) are tied to the prime rate.

But for traditional mortgages, this will not have a direct or immediate impact. There may be other events, trends and opportunities for considering refinancing. But the Fed’s move is not the trigger or reason those opportunities and choices will occur.
To understand why, read Chris Kissell’s article: Smart Mortgage Strategies After the Fed Cut.

“As you listen to news reports about the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, Bob Walters would like you to keep one thing in mind…. ‘Ninety percent of the media is getting this dead wrong,’ says Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans”




January 25, 2008 :: Jeffrey T. Smith

Conforming Loan Limit Increasing to $625,500 - What does it mean?

It means easier mortgage qualifying, lower interest rates relative to current jumbo rates and more buyers able to qualify for larger loans. Although the White House and congress appear to have agreed upon the economic stimulus package that includes the increase in conforming loan limits through the end of 2008, it still has to be voted into law. For the Bay Area, this should be a unique opportunity for many homeowners to lower their current interest rate, and/or lower their mortgage payment and/or stabilize their mortgage.
“This will have a big, immediate impact, especially in California where sales have been down most significantly,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Read More At: CNN Money




January 23, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

The Liquidity of Money is Creating Buying Opportunities for Some

Dan Green, a mortgage broker in Illinois, recently posted this interesting video about how changing mortgage guidelines are affecting the real estate markets. I found it to be a nice simple explanation.

As interest rates move lower, on the heels of yesterdays global stock market sell off, many are wondering if the real estate markets will begin to bounce upward. This video shows that more than just interest rates are affecting the US real estate markets. The liquidity of money is an important mechanic of our market.

This video also illustrates why our current market is such a tremendous buying opportunity for qualified long term Bay Area buyers. With the contraction of the mortgage guidelines we have seen less qualified buyers in the market. As we are seeing in the Bay Area this has led to less competition for homes. This is an unusual shift in the moods of Bay Area home owners. The Bay Area typically has a robust history and a diverse stable economic base. Thus, those who can meet the guidelines have an entrance into an exclusive group of buyers that are seeing real purchasing power. Now, if you are also a buyer who is looking to stay in your next home for, lets say 5-10 years, then you have a solid base for riding out future fluctuations in the real estate markets. It is my assessment, that we are currently experiencing a rare buying opportunity in the Bay Area real estate markets, where rates are low and the competition for homes has slimmed.




January 17, 2008 :: Curt Van Emon

Freezing HELOC’s - This is a companion piece to Jeff’s earlier writing

The Wall Street Journal today reports on what is happening in the home equity line market that may affect you.  If you have an equity line and you have questions about accessing the balance on the line, call your mortgage advisor asap.

See the full Wall Street Journal article here.




January 16, 2008 :: Jeffrey T. Smith

HELOC Jeopardy

There have been a handful of incidents where lenders are “freezing” existing Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC). This means that if you have an available balance to draw on from your HELOC, your lender will not let you do so. This is happening in California and the Bay Area. Who would have guessed a year ago that Countrywide Home Loans, the largest independent home lender in the U.S., would be on the verge of bankruptcy (presumably saved by Bank of America’s purchase of the mortgage monolith)? Countrywide is freezing some HELOCs. So are Chase and other major lenders.

Why is this happening and what options may you have? I’ll do my best to address these issues here.

First, it is important to understand that HELOCs, although secured by your real estate, are treated by lenders as consumer credit. So just as a lender will unilaterally revise the terms of your credit cards, or even cancel them, they’ll do the same with your HELOC. Prior to the national mortgage meltdown and real estate slump, the typical things that would trigger a freezing of your HELOC were problems with your payments, declining credit scores, bankruptcy, etc. And on some occasions after a natural disaster (fires, earthquakes, flooding, etc.) a lender would freeze credit lines until they could verify that their collateral (your home) was still standing. These still hold true today.

Currently the issue has been two-fold. One is the concern of the value of your real estate. Lenders are proactively assessing the value of the properties they have used for collateral on HELOCs. If they have reason to believe that the value has declined to the point of being a risk, they will likely freeze your credit line. The other issue is the significant cash reserves a lender needs to maintain for each HELOC that has a potential future draw. That is, if you have $100,000 available on your credit line, your lender needs to make sure they have access to enough cash should you draw on your line. In this current “credit crunch” environment, this has become a difficult and costly situation to maintain.

What to do? First, decide if it is important or critical to your financial stability and well-being to have any remaining available credit on your HELOC over the next 12-18 months. If it is not important to you, then there is probably nothing to do. If it is important, then try to assess if you are in any jeopardy of having your HELOC frozen. Specifically get a current assessment of value on your property. Although Zillow (and other on-line real estate valuation tools) can appear like a reliable source for establishing values on real estate, it can be wildly off, especially in the current market. So having your Realtor provide comparable sales may be a good starting place. Having the appraiser who completed your last appraisal give you an update of the current value is another possibility (but may cost money). See if the current value is consistent with the value that was used when you had your HELOC established. If it does support the value when you first set up the HELOC, and you are confident that you can use the evidence should you need to provide it to your lender (if they freeze your account on the grounds of the property value dropping), then again probably not an issue for you now. But if the value has declined (at least from what would be used as comparable sales in the current market), then consider drawing on the HELOC now so that you have the cash available. You will incur the cost of the additional interest, but you should be able to off-set that cost by getting a nominal return from savings accounts and CD’s.

I do want to make a point about value. What you can sell your property for and what the empirical evidence of an appraisal (or other valuation processes and tools) support can differ. We are in a very unique market for real estate and financing, which makes this potential discrepancy even greater. There are great opportunities as well as risks because of this turmoil. The best advice I can give in this environment is to seek out and use expert advice from your Realtor and financial & mortgage advisor.




January 10, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

Interview on Boomer 411

Boomer 411 LogoWe sighted Boomer 411 a new baby boomer web portal in a previous posting. They really have a unique approach to aggragating relevent content for the baby boomers. Their goal that is posted on thier home page is, “…to help people access Trusted and Relevant content related to baby boomers quickly.”

There are 2 new major events surroundiung Boomer 411. First, they have launched the portal. Financial Ambition has been assisting Boomer 411 to tag stories that are relevant real estate and finance information for baby boomers. You can check out many of our tags under the real estate and financial portions of the portal.

Second, I was interviewed for Boomer 411. The interview is being released in 2 parts. This is the first part of the interview. More to come as they post it.




January 7, 2008 :: Mark Lederer

Downward Trending Rates. Appreciation on the Way?

Wave Breaking Over Rocks
Thanks Stuart100 for this photo.

As I have been preparing for 2008, I have taken some time to be an observer of others around me. For instance, I recently observed those in my office who were complaining about the lack of good housing inventory currently on the market. This is perhaps a seasonal observation, but I began to ask them, “working with some buyers?” I got replies, “Yes, and I have nothing to sell them.”

I also have been observing the new news in the last couple of days and I began to pick up on the speculation of the interest rate markets. It appears the recent bad jobs data has sent the stock market into a serious dive. It has also begun to send interest rates and bond rates lower. Behind the Mortgage blog had a nice illustration of this trend and even went as far as to say rates would continue a choppy downward trend for the rest of the week.

So, where is the inventory? In past years, inventory started to hit the market in the end of January and early February as we all get back from holiday vacations. Will a flood of inventory hit the market this year? Will the seeming pent up buyer aggression cause a rise in median prices? Will more buyers hit the markets as interest rates drop?

It is my speculation that just like our current volatile stock market, our local real estate market will see volatility in 2008. This means we will experience spurts of buying and times of stagnation. We will experience tremendous selling opportunities in specific micro climates and we will experience great buying opportunities in others.

Having your finger on the pulse of the market will be paramount for a successful transaction in 2008. I also believe that buyers and sellers will continue to benefit from this volatility as many of my clients did in 2007. It will be interesting to see how the Bay Area market ebbs and flows. How the global economy, the stock markets, bond markets, the US Federal Reserve, political elections and other changing environments will affect the Bay Area for buyers and sellers.

Any interesting changes you are seeing? Let us know!




December 22, 2007 :: Mark Lederer

Christmas Tax Gift From Uncle Sam

Uncle SamFirst, I must say sorry for the lack of my writing as we get closer to the end of December. It has been a busy season for us, which is counter intuitive to what the media is saying about the marketplace. Don’t believe all of the hype. There are many areas in the East Bay that are still transacting fairly smoothly. As the year closes, I would say that pricing is the name of the game. This implies that buyers are still in the Bay Area marketplace. They are just looking for reduced prices. This is in correlation with the mood that the media has instilled in this market. Don’t get me wrong, there are many California cities that are currently at a standstill. One only has to drive through places like Antioch or Stockton to see the rows of for sale signs.

Well it appears that just in the nick of time for the Holidays, the US government has issued a tax reprieve for those that will be trying to endure short sales in 2008. The California Association of Realtors stated it best.

Under preexisting law, the debt forgiven by a lender, such as for short sales and refinances, was generally taxable to the borrower as debt discharge income. With the passage of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, a taxpayer does not have to pay federal income tax on debt forgiven for a loan secured by a qualified principal residence.

One thing I think we can count on is for the government and the Federal Reserve to do all they can to try and lessen the blow of our slowing real estate market. I find it interesting that this market change has brought so much political concern. The changes have been dramatic, but I speculate that much of the media coverage and political interest is generated, because this market deteriorated from the bottom up. The entry level buyer seeking out the American Dream was devastated by the changing mortgage guidelines coupled with dropping real estate values. All the while the top 1% income earners are still able to get loans at fantastic rates under the current mortgage structure. Thus, we are now seeing the political bail out of the bottom of the market. It seems to be the current politically correct bandwagon that Capitol Hill is riding into an election year. How far will this go?  Should we be using interest rates and tax cuts to stabilize our markets or should we let this market wash out and recover on its own? I see much debate erupting in the blogosphere over this very topic. What do you think?   

Thanks kaneda99 for the photo of Uncle Sam.




November 27, 2007 :: Mark Lederer

Boomer 411: The Baby Boomers Guide to living a good life!

Boomer 411 LogoIn the real estate industry, there has been much talk and interest in the Baby Boomers that are now coming to retirement age. The Baby Boomers are approximately 78 million people that were born from 1946 to 1964. To put the Baby Boomers in perspective one only needs to look at the basic statistics that illustrate the immense size and power of this demographic. For instance, approximately 7,918 people in the US turned 60 each day in 2006.

The Bureau of the Census estimates that there will be twice as many persons age 65 or older in 2030 as there are today: 69 million (20 percent of the population) versus 34 million (13 percent of the population). Likewise, the Bureau’s population projection, from its middle series, shows 18 million persons age 85 or older in 2050 (4 1/2 percent of the U.S. population); now, there are less than 4 million persons in that age group (1 1/2 percent of the U.S. population).
- “Retirement Prospects of Baby Boomers - Statistical Data Included“. Family Economics and Nutrition Review. Wntr 1999. FindArticles.com. 26 Nov. 2007.

This is an introduction to an exciting new offer for Baby Boomers and those of us interested in the Baby Boomers. Boomer 411 is coming soon! It is a new search portal that is dedicated to the best thinking, reflections, discovery, solutions, innovation and pioneers in fields related to Baby Boomers. Financial Ambition is a trustee of the new search site (we are providing and tagging financial and real estate related content for Boomer 411). Currently, you can go the Boomer 411 blog and learn more. Enjoy the blog and much more to come as the search site will be live soon!