This is worth a read.

Latest from Ben Stein

Thanks Manuel for a photo of this cow moving against the herd.

I just looked at the San Jose Mercury News’s real estate blog, Square Feet. It appears they, like many news outlets, are having an identity crisis with the current condition of the real estate economy. Below are 2 postings that were posted on the Square Feet blog, by the same writer. They were posted on consecutive days, the 18th and 19th of October 2007.

Take a look at this story they posted on October 18th entitled Bay Area Home Sales at a Two-Decade Low In September.

… And in Santa Clara County, again for all types of homes (new and resale, houses and condos), the rock-bottom month was Feb. 1991, when 997 homes sold. For sales of just resale houses, the lowest month was Feb. 95, with 684 houses changing hands. Let’s bear in mind, though, that there were a lot fewer homes to sell in the Bay Area back in the early 1990s, so it’s possible that last month’s numbers are in fact scraping near record-low territory.

They make it appear as if the Bay area real estate economy is tanking. Yet, before you make that assessment read the posting, Silicon Valley Luxury Market Soldiers On which was posted on the 19th of October.

A report out this week from Alain Pinel Realtors showed that 227 homes sold for $2.5 million or more in the third quarter in seven of the Bay Area counties, compared to 195 of those high-ticket homes that sold last year during the same period. That’s an increase of 16 percent. The counties in the survey were San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Monterey, Alameda and Contra Costa.

Reading the October 18th article could cause arrhythmia, while reading the October 19th article may make you bullish beyond belief. So, how can these 2 articles be written just 2 days apart and paint such a different picture of our real estate economy? This answer is complicated. First, the media is often behind the real estate curve. Second, it is my opinion that the media is not a good place to get tips and tactics for you next real estate sale or purchase strategy.

So, my interpretation of the disjointed news above, is that our markets have been made more volatile by a lack of liquidity and the negative press this crisis has created. This means that we will see many ups and downs in the months to come. Don’t fret over the downs and jump for joy over the ups. There is much opportunity in change, if you are able to take advantage of the situation.

Get good representation from a successful Realtor in your area who can help asses your ability to act. Then look at the facts when deciding to make your next transaction. Rates are still low compared to historical averages. In general listed homes are having less buyer activity and are more willing to negotiate. This is a fantastic buyers market for those that are qualified buyers with good down payments. Get a qualified mortgage adviser that can help you navigate the complicated mortgage markets.

It is my interpretation that the robust high end real estate surge that the above October 19th article refers to, as smart action by top 1% income earners to enter a market where they get both a good rate and a great price. Having both these opportunities at once is rare and will not last for ever. These movers in the market are truly buying against the herd.